¿Dónde generan la mayoría de su dinero los bancos a lo largo y a lo ancho del mundo?
A continuación le ofrecemos los resultados del notable estudio realizado por la más importante firma consultora internacional, McKinsey & Company.
Vemos las grandes variaciones de rentabilidad que existen de acuerdo a las plazas, al origen de las utilidades, dónde se esperan las mejores oportunidades potenciales y como ha cambiado el panorama después de 10 años de transcurridos desde la crisis financiera del 2009. a
Profits in banking have been steadily on the rise since the financial crisis.
Just last year, the global banking industry cashed in an impressive $1.36 trillion in after-tax profits — the highest total in the sector seen in the last 20 years.
What are the drivers behind revenue and profits in the financial services sector, and where do the biggest opportunities exist in the future?
Following the Money
Today’s infographic comes to us from McKinsey & Company, and it leverages proprietary insights from their Panorama database.
Using data stemming from more than 60 countries, we’ve broken down historical banking profits by region, while also visualizing key ratios that help demonstrate why specific countries are more profitable for the industry.
Finally, we’ve also looked at the particular geographic regions that may present the biggest opportunities in the future, and why they are relevant today.
Banking Profits, by Region
Before we look at what’s driving banking profits, let’s start with a breakdown of annual after-tax profits by region over time.
Banking Profit by Year and Region ($B)
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| Global ($B) | $388 | $530 | $635 | $703 | $859 | $963 | $1,070 | $1,065 | $1,144 | $1,356 |
| United States | $19 | $118 | $176 | $263 | $268 | $263 | $291 | $275 | $270 | $403 |
| China | $95 | $135 | $174 | $225 | $255 | $278 | $278 | $270 | $301 | $333 |
| Western Europe | $78 | $34 | $21 | -$70 | $28 | $95 | $154 | $159 | $186 | $198 |
| Rest of World | $196 | $243 | $265 | $285 | $309 | $327 | $348 | $361 | $387 | $421 |
In 2018, the United States accounted for $403 billion of after-tax profits in the banking sector — however, China sits in a very close second place, raking in $333 billion.
What’s Under the Hood?
While there’s no doubt that financial services can be profitable in almost any corner of the globe, what is less obvious is where this profit actually comes from.
The truth is that banking can vary greatly depending on location — and what drives value for banks in one country may be completely different from what drives value in another.
Let’s look at data and ratios from four very different places to get a sense of how financial services markets can vary.
| Country | RARC/GDP | Loans Penetration/GDP | Margins (RBRC/Total Loans) | Risk Cost Margin |
| Global Average | 5.1% | 124% | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| United States | 5.4% | 121% | 5.0% | 0.4% |
| China | 6.6% | 147% | 6.0% | 1.4% |
| Singapore | 13.0% | 316% | 4.6% | 0.4% |
| Finland | 3.4% | 133% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
1. RARC / GDP (Revenues After Risk Costs / GDP)
This ratio shows compares a country’s banking revenues to overall economic
production, giving a sense of how important banking is to the economy. Using
this, you can see that banking is far more important to Singapore’s economy
than others in the table.
2. Loans Penetration / GDP
Loans penetration can be further broken up into retail loans and wholesale
loans. The difference can be immediately seen when looking at data on China and
the United States:
| Country | Retail Loans | Wholesale Loans | Loan Penetration (Total) |
| United States | 73% | 48% | 121% |
| China | 34% | 113% | 147% |
In America, banks make loans primarily to the retail sector. In China, there’s a higher penetration on a wholesale basis — usually loans being made to corporations or other such entities.
3. Margins (Revenues Before Risk Costs / Total Loans)
Margins made on lending is one way for bankers to gauge the potential of a
market, and as you can see above, margins in the United States and China are
both at (or above) the global average. Meanwhile, for comparison, Finland has
margins that are closer to half of the global average.
4. Risk Cost Margin (Risk Cost / Total Loans)
Not surprisingly, China still holds higher risk cost margins than the global
average. On the flipside, established markets like Singapore, Finland, and the
U.S. all have risk margins below the global average.
Future Opportunities in Banking
While this data is useful at breaking down existing markets, it can also help to give us a sense of future opportunities as well.
Here are some of the geographic markets that have the potential to grow into key financial services markets in the future:
- Sub-Saharan Africa
Despite having 16x the population of South Africa, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa still generates fewer banking profits. With lower loan penetration rates and RARC/GDP ratios, there is significant potential to be found throughout the continent. - India and Indonesia
Compared to similar economies in Asia, both India and Indonesia present an interesting banking opportunity because of their high margins and low loan penetration rates. - China
While China has a high overall loan penetration rate, the retail loan category still holds much potential given the country’s population and growing middle class.
A Changing Landscape in Banking
As banks shift focus to face new market challenges, the next chapter of banking may be even more interesting than the last.
Add in the high stakes around digital transformation, aging populations, and new service opportunities, and the distance between winners and losers could lengthen even more.
Where will the money in banking be in the future? b